With Christian McCaffrey set to carry the load for the San Francisco 49ers in place of an injured Brock Purdy, all eyes are on the running back as he prepares to face the New Orleans Saints at the Caesars Superdome on Sunday, September 14, 2025. McCaffrey isn’t just the offense’s engine—he’s the betting favorite to score the first touchdown, a role that’s become even more critical after Purdy’s toe injury sidelined him for the game. The NFL Week 2 matchup Caesars Superdome kicks off at 1:00 p.m. ET, broadcast on FOX, and the stakes are higher than the point spread suggests.
McCaffrey’s Dual Threat Powers 49ers’ Offense
In Week 1 against the Seattle Seahawks, McCaffrey rushed 22 times for 68 yards (3.1 yards per carry) and caught nine passes for 73 yards. That’s 141 total yards and a reminder that he’s still one of the NFL’s most complete backs—even when the ground game doesn’t pop. He didn’t score a touchdown, but he was everywhere. The 49ers’ offense, thin at receiver and without Purdy’s precision, leaned on him like a lifeline. "He made up for it in the passing game," noted Sports Illustrated, but the subtext was clear: they need more from the run game. Now, with Purdy out, McCaffrey won’t just be a complement—he’ll be the centerpiece.
Sportsbooks have responded. Multiple outlets, including SportsGambler.com and Sports Illustrated, list McCaffrey as the top pick for first touchdown scorer. Exact odds are missing from reports, but the consensus is unanimous: he’s the favorite. Why? Because the 49ers’ game plan will likely revolve around him. No Purdy means no deep shots. No rhythm passing game. That leaves the middle of the field—and McCaffrey’s hands—to create explosive plays.
Betting Lines Tell a Story of Uncertainty
The spread? A mess. Covers.com has the 49ers as 6.5-point favorites. ESPN says -7.5. Sports Illustrated says -4.5. CBSSports.com clocks it at -3. That’s a 4.5-point swing across major books—a sign that oddsmakers aren’t sure how much Purdy’s absence will hurt. The moneyline is equally scattered: from -161 (CBSSports) to -300 (BetMGM). The inconsistency suggests the market is still adjusting. One thing’s clear: the 49ers are still favored, but not by the margin you’d expect from a 1-0 team facing a 0-1 squad.
And here’s the twist: SportsGambler.com is betting against the grain. Their analysts, factoring in injuries and recent form, see value in the New Orleans Saints at +3. They calculate a 60% chance of the Saints covering, while sportsbooks only assign a 51.3% probability. That gap? It’s not noise—it’s insight. Their model doesn’t just look at stats. It looks at momentum, defensive adjustments, and home-field psychology.
Historical Trends and Defensive Realities
The 49ers are 6-2-1 against the spread in their last nine meetings with the Saints. But here’s the catch: they’re 1-5 ATS in their last six road games. And they’re 2-8 ATS in their last 10 overall. That’s not a pattern—it’s a warning. The Saints, meanwhile, lost their opener to Arizona but held them to 4.5 yards per play. Their defense isn’t flashy, but it’s disciplined. And they’ve beaten the 49ers in this very building—27-13 in their last meeting at the Superdome.
The over/under is another battleground. Lines range from 40.5 to 43.5. Sports Illustrated’s 42.5 total feels like the sweet spot. Why? Because both defenses played well in Week 1. The 49ers held Seattle to 4.6 yards per play. The Saints held Arizona to 4.5. Neither offense looked crisp. And with Purdy out, San Francisco’s passing game is even more limited. Covers.com even suggests betting the under—unless the total drops dramatically. That’s a signal.
Who’s Left on the Field?
The Saints are dealing with injuries too. Safety Julian Blackmon and offensive tackle Taliese Guaga are both listed as questionable. That could affect their ability to contain McCaffrey in space or protect quarterback Derek Carr. If Blackmon can’t play, the Saints lose a key playmaker in coverage. If Guaga can’t hold up, Carr might be under pressure more than usual. That’s a dangerous combo for a team already missing momentum.
Meanwhile, the 49ers’ receiving corps is thin. Jake Tongues caught the go-ahead touchdown in Week 1—on a play nearly intercepted. That’s not a blueprint. That’s desperation. With Deebo Samuel still recovering and Brandon Aiyuk inconsistent, McCaffrey will be the only reliable weapon. And he knows it.
What’s Next?
If McCaffrey scores early, the 49ers win. If he’s contained, the game becomes a grind—and the Saints’ defense thrives in those. The key isn’t just how many yards he gets. It’s when he gets them. First touchdown? That’s the bet. But the bigger story? The 49ers’ ability to win without Purdy. If they pull it off, the narrative shifts from "can they survive?" to "are they better without him?"
For now, the market is split. The odds are messy. The injuries are real. And Christian McCaffrey? He’s standing in the backfield, ready to carry more than just the ball.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why is Christian McCaffrey favored to score the first touchdown?
With Brock Purdy out, the 49ers’ offense will rely heavily on McCaffrey as the primary playmaker. His versatility as a rusher and receiver makes him the most likely to break loose for a short-yardage TD, especially in a game expected to be low-scoring and ground-oriented. Sportsbooks and analysts consistently rank him as the top first-TD option due to his volume and red-zone efficiency.
How does Brock Purdy’s injury change the 49ers’ strategy?
Without Purdy’s arm, San Francisco can’t stretch the field. That means more runs, more screens, and more McCaffrey touches. The 49ers will likely use play-action sparingly and lean on short passes to tight ends and McCaffrey to move the chains. It’s a more predictable offense—but one that still thrives if McCaffrey is fresh and the offensive line holds up.
Why do betting lines vary so much between sportsbooks?
The inconsistency reflects uncertainty around Purdy’s absence. Some books assume the 49ers’ defense and McCaffrey’s dominance will carry them; others worry about their thin receiving corps and road struggles. The wide spread—from -3 to -7.5—shows oddsmakers are still adjusting. Sharp bettors are watching for line movement, especially if the total drops below 41.
Is the Saints +3 a good bet according to experts?
Yes—SportsGambler.com’s analysts believe it is. They calculate a 60% chance of the Saints covering, compared to the sportsbooks’ 51.3%. Their model factors in New Orleans’ defensive discipline, the 49ers’ poor road ATS record (1-5 last six), and the Saints’ recent home win over them. It’s a contrarian play, but one backed by data, not hype.
What’s the projected outcome of the game?
CBSSports.com’s SportsLine Projection Model gives the Saints a 50% chance of covering the spread, suggesting a close game. Most analysts expect a low-scoring affair, likely 20-17 or 23-20. The 49ers will win if McCaffrey gets 25+ touches. The Saints win if they limit him to under 100 total yards and force turnovers. It’s a coin flip—until the first TD.
How do injuries impact the game’s flow?
For the Saints, Julian Blackmon’s potential absence weakens their secondary against McCaffrey’s routes. Taliese Guaga’s questionable status could expose Derek Carr to pressure, limiting time to throw. For the 49ers, the lack of healthy receivers means McCaffrey must do more—and that increases his wear-and-tear risk. If he fades in the second half, the offense stalls. That’s the gamble.